Just saw this report from June 3, 2026 on Indian aviation sector and honestly,it's not looking good at all . recovery everyone was hoping for seems to be in big trouble.
The main issue is apparently the geopolitical tension in West Asia,which is hitting everything badly . Aviation Tracker report from Equirus Securities is showing some really worrying numbers.
International passenger traffic for Indian carriers was down to about 1.8 million passengers in April 2026 . That's a huge 39% drop compared to last year . And even month-on-month it fell by 1%. Not a good sign ah .
And it's not just passenger numbers . Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) also fell by around 33% year-on-year to 7.2 billion,and flight departures dropped by 37% . So airlines are trying to adjust by cutting down on seats,with Available Seat Kilometres (ASKs) down 28%,but it feels like they are just trying to stop the bleeding.
Few things standing out clearly from this report:
- Passenger traffic down 39% — significant year-on-year decline in international travel.
- High fuel costs persist — Brent crude prices around $92 per barrel,affecting profitability .
- Domestic traffic also declining — 13.9 million passengers in April,down 3% year-on-year.
And on top of everything,the costs are just going up and up . Fuel prices are nightmare rn. Brent crude is at about $92 per barrel which is a 44% increase from last year . Singapore jet fuel is even worse,at $128 per barrel,up by 65% .
But the problems don't stop there . The rupee is also getting weaker against dollar,trading at ₹95 . This is 11% increase,and it makes everything from aircraft leases to maintenance more expensive for our airlines.
Even domestic fuel,the ATF,is now at ₹105.6 thousand per kilolitre . That's an 18% jump year-on-year. No wonder even domestic traffic is seeing a 3% drop .
So airlines are cutting capacity and changing routes,but the report says the main problem is this West Asia crisis which has disrupted travel patterns and demand completely .
You just have to wonder how long they can manage with such high costs and low traffic . The whole situation feels very fragile…
