This monsoon update feels worrying from start only,because Southwest monsoon in 2026 has not just been late,it is also coming with weak rainfall signals . And for farmers,this is not small thing ah.
IMD confirmed that monsoon entered Andaman Sea on May 16 . Earlier,IMD had expected arrival in Kerala by May 26,but rains finally reached Kerala on June 4 . That delay itself started raising concern around sowing and farm planning.
And honestly,numbers in long-range forecast look more uncomfortable than delay . Forecast presented by O.P. Sreejith says rainfall may be only 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA),with potential error margin of ±4% . There is also 84% probability of deficient rainfall nationally this year .
For Andhra Pradesh,situation looks especially tense . Coastal Andhra Pradesh is expected to get less than 91% of its LPA,around 547.4 mm against normal of 601.3 mm . Rayalaseema looks even worse,with rainfall expected below 88% of its LPA,around 358.0 mm against normal of 408.5 mm .
Overall state forecast is below-normal category,with four-month average of 521.6 mm . June is most worrying because sowing depends heavily on this month,and rainfall may stay below 79% of LPA . If that happens,farmers may have to delay decisions or take bigger risks.
Few things standing out clearly in this forecast:
- El Niño's impact on rainfall — Sea surface temperatures are shifting towards El Niño,and moisture supply may get affected.
- Historical rainfall trends — Of 17 El Niño years since 1951,Andhra Pradesh experienced above-normal rainfall thrice.
- Global warming complicates forecasts — Higher temperatures may mean more dry days and intense rainfall events .
Professor C.V. Naidu from Andhra University explained how Pacific conditions affect this year’s climate outlook . He said Southern Oscillation affects trade winds,which are needed for moisture delivery to India . Negative Southern Oscillation Index means El Niño,and that weakens trade winds.
And this is where science becomes scary in simple terms . Moisture-bearing Somali Jet needs strong temperature gradient,but El Niño reduces that strength . Atmosphere becoming more stable may sound good for humans,but same stability can reduce rainfall conditions.
There are few local factors giving some relief rn . Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral,and if it turns positive,it may help balance some shortage . Local weather patterns like current weather trough have also brought some recent rainfall in state,but Professor Naidu warned these are short-term and do not change bigger seasonal forecast.
July and August are going to matter a lot now,because deficits in those months can hit crops,food security and state economy badly . Higher temperatures also increase health risks like heart problems,and disturb hydration and nutrition patterns . So yes,one delayed monsoon is not just weather update anymore,it is farmers,prices,health and uncertainty all tied together…
